Do Toolbar Distribution Deals increase market share?

Microsoft strikes deals for Live Search

http://ces.cnet.com/8301-19167_1-10135067-100.html

Microsoft Live Search Toolbar to Be Distributed on 2009 HP Consumer PCs

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2008/jun08/06-02HPToolbarPR.mspx

This is the big question for Microsoft after signing two big deals with Dell and HP to distribute Live Search and the Windows Live product suite with all new PCs and Laptops.  For years Google and Yahoo have dominated the Toolbar space with a 95% market share between the two of them  (Comscore, June ‘08) and I personally think that toolbar downloads go a long way to establishing a pattern a consistent user Search Behavior.  The Yahoo and Google Toolbars have been so pervasive over the past few years that they have simply become a nuisance.  At one point you could not download Flash, Java, or any host of online products without installing a toolbar.  Until recently, the only way to avoid it was to choose “Custom Install” from the installation menu (something I ALWAYS do now and I RECOMMEND to EVERYONE else) and uncheck the Toolbar box.

Herein lies our conundrum: Is there a portion of the Search User base that defaults to a particular engine simply because it is the primary Search or Toolbar Default in their browser?  Also, what percentage of users are savvy enough to switch their default preferences  after buying a new machine?  I don’t know if an answer is available, but my hunch is this:

The Live Search and Windows Live Product Suite integration with Dell and HP will give users the opportunity to reevaluate Live Search and some of those users will switch over.  Will it be enough to post significant gains on Google?  No, but I expect that we will see an uptick in Live Search market share.  I will reiterate my belief that while these toolbar distribution deals are nice, the only way MSFT or Yahoo will really make an impact is buying going after Google’s adWords distribution partners.

SearchWarrior

Oh yeah, my favorite toolbar is the MSN Toolbar powered by Silverlight.  http://www.newmsntoolbar.com/